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Oil is not just speculation

It 's definitely the raw material of which we speak and write more, the trend in prices today are the opposite of 8 / 9 months ago. The prices in January are totally opposite to those of last July with oil at $ 147 fee, the actual values \u200b\u200bfluctuate about $ 40/45 per barrel.

The first investigated the price in July was the speculation which had inflated the value of commodities, lead to excess on the price never seen before, and no rational, given that the U.S. economy in early 2008 was already in crisis , the only reason that could push the black gold was rising due to the economies of Asian countries like China and India continued to show great strength in the markets. But it is known that the use of barrels per day from China is much lower than it could use the USA.

Today the black gold speculation is in sharp decline and the reason for this lies mainly in the lack of direct involvement of large investment banks, the reduction of loans that poured on these types of operations and last but not least, a strengthening of control by the authorities.

Taking a look at the graphs and the strong fluctuations of the values \u200b\u200bthat have occurred over the last 12/18 months, argues that the strong intervention of the banks in the futures market has burst the bubble oil, in reality the world production of barrels of oil daily in recent years has not increased in proportion to oil prices: in 4Q 2006 production was about 85.5 million barrels, while its 2Q 2008 (the peak period of price) was 86.2 million barrels a variation of +0.60%.

Today the price of WTI is about $ 43 at these prices and oil companies have little cost to invest in finding new oil fields, not surprisingly they cut these investments being made in that direction. The IEA is concerned that a decline of investment in new fields increases the risk that the reserves may be insufficient in the future, a factor to consider because it could destabilize the future prices of crude oil.

Andrew Tancredi - independent analyst

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