Ready to devalue the greenback. things first. A few weeks ago is being Currency Wars between macro regions, Asia, America and Europe, this probably caused by the resumption of the Western world which is slower than that of emerging countries. It is also a war of nerves between China and the U.S., where now the expectations of the U.S. to see China revalue its currency have not been met, the U.S. government expected a gradual but steady appreciation of the currency in Beijing, but now it takes 6.64 yuan to 1 USD.
China Central Bank had left in June last year, free-floating exchange rate but not more than 0.5% daily and keeping it still attached to a basket of currencies remained top secret, such action was intended, at least on paper, a possible slow and gradual revaluation of the Chinese currency.
But more than three months after such action by the yuan remained almost unchanged. This has resulted insieme alla lenta ripresa dell’economia dei paesi occidentali, il nervosismo delle autorità governative americane, tale da far minacciare interventi restrittivi degli scambi tra gli Usa e la Cina.
Il segretario del Tesoro Americano Tim Geithner, da qualche settimana ha iniziato un duro pressing sulla necessità di portare la moneta cinese ad una valutazione più appropriata, arrivando a “minacciare” di portare sul tavolo del prossimo G20 a novembre, la proposta di innalzare tasse sulla merci provenienti da Pechino.
Parallelamente è tornata in auge la strategia del Quantitative easing sbandierata dalla Federal Reserve, which will speak for a second time since the crisis erupted, with non-standard measures of intervention to the economy. The Fed is preparing to buy U.S. government bonds with the issue of money: This strategy is designed to groped to face two problems: the first concerns the risk of deflation, the second is to push the economy to reduce unemployment. Lw news QE led the 30-year Treasury rate to negative values.
is implementing a real war of currencies, the U.S. is devaluing its currency strong push for exports, unlike the Yen è molto forte, quasi ai massimi da 15 anni ed a ruota segue l’Euro ai massimi da inizio anno (cross 1,41$).
Questa forte iniezione di liquidità dovrà essere compensata da contromisure da parte sia dei paesi emergenti che dall’area euro. In pratica per sopperire agli scompensi valutari i paesi dovranno acquistare titoli denominati in dollari e/o dollari; quindi la mancanza di interventi in questa direzione, potrebbe causare forti squilibri delle economie.
Inoltre la Cina pare non voglia e non possa acquistare ancora titoli americani, in quanto ne detiene attualmente almost $ 3 Tim and implement policies without the revaluation of the yuan, could destabilize the flow of capital.
The rule of the Big Mac Index says that currently the value of a Big Mac in USA is $ 3.71, while the same is true in China and $ 2.18 in Europe 4, $ 79: the result is that the yuan is undervalued between 30/40%, while the euro is overvalued.
Lords battles have already started, we'll see if it will be war or you will come to agreements at the next G-20, but already it seems that the IMF has called an urgent meeting to on 18 October in Beijing. Perhaps more than any tax on imports would be nice, since the U.S. through diplomatic channels, groped used to revalue the yuan in recent years has borne fruit.
Andrew Tancredi - independent analyst
