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After months of discussions and processed products on CDOs and CDS, the financial world has become a good smattering of the product.

The intention of the writer is all in point the finger on the culprit, here you really want to investigate the U.S. Finance, the Fed and the entire U.S. banking system: essentially a system of finance that just do not have to nothing to do with ethics and morality.

Newspapers and TV continually speak now of finance and the crisis spreads, but are very careful in avoiding the discussion of who has caused this crisis: the U.S.. We are now importing American wire now the way we think, what sets us unrealistic against a country that has made a financial Supermarket; However, without considering that the products displayed on shelves are just pieces of paper (waste) and not the actual products which are outside the organization and the production of tangible goods , whether assets and human capital. These financial engineering products created by a select few of the innovative financial wizards, are then placed by experienced sellers on the market by passing them as any Bond or Bund, capital guaranteed. But where is the error: in who controls and controllers in the organs, the Fed in the first instance and the central banks.

Another negative is that the Asset Management Italians do nothing but buy packages already packaged by major foreign banks (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Lehman Brothers and many others), then regardless of their composition, although I must say, the current managers are more careful than the year 2000 when savers were given everything.

I think the solution lies in making new reforms in this regard and also the European Community should equip itself in the controls to the products they are at the investor end, but not limited to: check and then put stakes in banks Purchase of these products by linking for example, banking institutions, to hold deposits in banks parallel to ensure at least 50 plants and 100% of the amount invested in products to leverage, simultaneously prohibit these come to savers. Clearly, this could discourage investment in this direction, but what matters for us is to ensure that a banking system that is being distorted.

Fortunately Italy as other European countries are less exposed to these products to leverage, but sadly against the economies of Europe and Asia are too tied to the U.S., so if the U.S. economy goes down , wheel follows Europe and Asia.

-independent analyst Andrew Tancredi

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THE ENERGY ETF

The ETC EFT and energy sector, listed on the Italian Stock Exchange are 11 I will simply analyze a few.

EFT Ishares Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Swap (EXXY) is a German law Fund managed by Barclays Global Investor, an effort to replicate the benchmark index (Dow Jones AIG CommoditiesSM) with passive management, as with all ETFs are not provided Entry and exit fees from investment management fees but only annual (deductions based on the actual period of imprisonment) equal to 0.31%.

The Fund can invest in a basket of 23 commodities, where the weight of each raw material should be between 2 and 15% and none of them exceed 1 / 3 of the entire portfolio . The reference price is € 37.85 to 23.05 with a minimum reached 3.20 to € 34.27 and got a max of € 38.86 two days after its listing (27/02).

The ETC "ETFS Crud Oil is a non-expiring license issued by a special purpose vehicle (ETFS Commodity Securities Limited), compared to a direct investment in derivatives that track the performance of the Dow Jones-AIG commodity Crdue Oil Sub-Index, this benchmark reflects the price of WTI oil contracts traded on the New York and is considered in calculating the price of future negotiations which ended the month following the reference.

The annual management fees are equal to 0.49% of the investment (calculated on the actual holding period of the ETC). The current price is 50.43 € to 23/05 but it is a growing trend for months now, consider that just over a year ago traded at 27 € about.

Other ETC is the "ETFS Energy DJ-AIGCI (AIGE) this is also a title does not expire in the face of a direct investment in derivative contracts (as above) and in this case the replication index of underlying commodities Dow Jones-AIG Energy Sub-Index.

The current reference price is € 26.47 with its minimum almost a year ago to € 16.91 (27/08) and annual running costs 0.54%.

The investment in the ETC can be done in a medium and long term strategy and also aims to protect against inflation as it currently affects negatively on the investors' portfolios; instead a short-term strategy is to exploit short-term movements in the prices of energy materials.

also believe that the increase in oil prices is mainly driven by speculation and by two other essential reasons, a reduced capacity to increase production by two companies and the growing demand from Asian markets, with the consequent rise in raw materials.

-independent analyst Andrew Tancredi

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The subprime UBS arrive on the "personal".

now have already been budgeted to cover the write-downs losses on subprime mortgages for the year 2007, to weigh the losses on derivatives linked to U.S. subprime write-downs that led to total to 18.4 billion dollars.
Much of the loss falls on the investment bankin, because that more closely linked to subprime mortgages, the loss is around 15.5mld Swiss francs. The CEO of UBS, Rohner, announced that exposure to subprime mortgages amounted to 26.3 billion U.S. dollars, but it seems that in the first quarter of 2008, the bank reduced its exposure in the real estate sector through improvements to the evaluations and with divestitures, leading to the devaluation 15Mld dollars.
data arriving from the first quarter of 2008 confirm the negative moment of the Swiss bank, yet another loss of 7.64 billion dollars on subprime loans, the crisis has blown up the number 1 Ospel of UBS.
But the rescue of the bank came to the bottom "GIC" from Singapore and a Middle Eastern investor for a cash injection which would be around 15mld francs. Today
are confirmed cuts equal to 5500 units by mid-2009 that are children of heavy losses on subprime mortgage markets, investment banking in 2600, the losses incurred during 2007 and first quarter of 2008 represented a large ballast that undermines the stability of the institution in Switzerland. In addition there are entries for the sale of mortgage loans as it relates to an American company to acquire assets for 22mld dollars. UBS is
la prima banca a maggiore esposizione europea sul mercato dei mutui americani dove l’incaglio complessivamente si aggira intorno ai 19mld di dollari.
Il titolo ha toccato il suo minimo qualche settimana fa a 22,19$ e oggi a mezz’ora dall’apertura quota a 33,19$ in flessione del 3,21%.

andrew tancredi - analista indipendente

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The sentiment of the Credit Default Swap.

I Credit default swap non sono altro che i derivati del credito, ossia dei mezzi di copertura del rischio su credito. L’andamento dei Cds sia riguardanti il settore bancario che quello assicurativo è stato al rialzo costante per tutto l’arco degli ultimi sei mesi. Il rilevamento more important is the fact that the financial Cds are becoming more expensive than prices of industrial stocks, all showing that the credit risk of banking and insurance is rising.

Moreover, the turbulence being experienced by bank stocks, the first in the U.S. and then in Europe, underline the increasing uncertainty on loans held by banks. Here are also linked to the titles of other sectors, even when they are published real data of companies: Fiat see that after a strong reduction in expecting a rise in ratings by rating agencies, which has not arrived as the ' weakening economy world situations that increase the probability of default.

is clear that the difference in default risk in Europe is different from that of overseas, because the credit default swaps on European listed companies will have derivatives but they are not directly linked to subprime mortgages. These CDs are simply tools that allow you to transfer credit risk from a person who intends to acquire coverage (the buyer to cover) to a person who intends to give (the seller) are a kind of insurance policies that serve to protect investors from default risk of bonds.

CDSs linked to European actions are grouped in the family the iTraxx: iTraxx Europe relative to the first steps on the investment grade, the iTraxx Cross Over on actions rather high yield and hi Vol iTraxx CDS represents the 30 investment grade to higher volatility. The performance of the CDS on European banks is a useful tool to understand the health institutes, currently the Sogen is considered more deserving of other institutions such as ING, Royal Bank of Scotland, Dresdner, Commerzbank and others; also CDSs Unicredit Banca MPS and Credit Suisse are more expensive Sogen. In the last month of the CDS Italease collapsed. Just as the CDS on the Fiat is more expensive European car of the other competitors, including justification of why this agencies still take the credit ratings on Fiat.

Andrew Tancredi - independent analyst

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Nerea Bei Teresa Orlowski

derivatives ITALEASE

Finally he ended with an investigation that led to the guilty part of managers and consultants against Italease. The investigation led to prison in Faenza other managers and consultants who have engineered, at least according to prosecutor in Milan, a real conspiracy against Italease.

The damage left from derivatives transactions that led to gain privileged clients only. It was Paul Gualtieri consultant appointed by the new Board of Italease a stilare una perizia sulla faccenda derivati: “la causa delle perdite è scaturita dall’operatività in derivati di Banca Italease, perdita che per oltre il 50% è dovuta a contratti conclusi con 12 clienti”. Sono quasi tutti immobiliaristi di Roma, Italia Re, Whelerent Autonoleggio, Gruppo Rarem, Nabucco Re, Eurologistica, Torre Spaccata, Immobiliare Europea, Parco Dei Medici, Anagnina Property; Bb Parlamento, Cmi International e Radio Dimensione Suono).

La perdita accertata è di 778milioni di euro; l’advisor ha esaminato l’operatività dei 12 clienti che hanno generato importi di marked to market negativi più elevati: si tratta di ammontari enormi rispetto alla modesta dimensione delle Pmi che hanno concluso questi contratti. L’anomalia di questi contratti risiede nelle modalità operative adottate per la conclusione e gestione dei contratti derivati, tese a far guadagnare i clienti ed i procacciatori e spostando il rischio sulla banca. Quindi solo i soci di Italease hanno perso i soldi mentre le 12 Pmi hanno avuto introiti di non poco conto. L’operatività su derivati di Italease sembra essere lo strumento tecnico per distrarre somme dalla Banca piuttosto che una reale attività di gestione del rischio.

Gli interest rate swap venduti alle Pmi sono primi di logiche economiche razionali: lo studio dice che le macchinose formule utilizzate per questi derivati rendono i contratti derivati inutilizzabili for hedging interest rates. In essence, these transactions were used to illegally divert part of the assets of Italease. In practice since 2005 56% commission expenses and socks were collected by De Filippo. It is clear that both the brokers that customers could not be unaware of the risks of these derivatives, and then everything seems to agreements between SMEs and those aimed at distracting the sums Italease.

The contracts were all derivatives contracts on interest rates high risk Italease bought by international banks and sold them to customers all kind of speculation because that is not par start with a negative initial value, all bets almost lost by the subscriber. The initial premium immediato (upfront) che veniva pagato al momento dell’ingresso sulla posizione ha consentito a Italease di incassare all’apertura del contratto (acquisiti da Deutsche Bank, Bnp Paribas e Sogen ed altre) 173 milioni di euro accolandosi i rischi relativi. Questi contratti poi venivano intermediati da Italease ai clienti mentre il rischio restava sul groppo della Banca nel caso il cliente non onorasse il contratto. La perizia ha stabilito che Italease non girava ai clienti gli importi upfront. Questi contratti sono stati creati in modo che nei primi periodi fossero generati flussi positivi e successivamente dovevano generare flussi netti negativi; in pratica i contratti sono sempre stati chiusi anticipatamente (dal cliente vs Italeasi) prima che si generassero losses. It is clear that the Bank was left with open positions on derivatives and the end was to honor the contract.

The most important point is that "customers have closed contracts in advance whenever they were in a position with negative economic value, but they have never paid anything to Italease as a cost of exit from the contract value negative. " While the Bank had to pay to the international banks of € 404.9 million. A budget to cover these losses, the bank acquired once again other derivatives, in turn, increasing the risk of loss.
Conclusions: The 12 clients have earned € 10.9 million and € 16.6 million for brokers commissions. Ilatease ha incassato upfront 173,8 milioni mentre ha pagato costi di chiusura contratti per 404,9 milioni e costi di commissioni per 16,6 milioni ed 1 milione per retrocessioni ai clienti ha perso per i soli 12 clienti 248,7 milioni.

andrew tancredi - analista indipendente

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